Poll Dancing With Alaska Senate Candidates
Back on September 20th, a poll was done which simulated fairly well the Murkowski write-in attempt. It didn’t provide Murkowski’s name in the initial question, because in the voting booth, people will be looking at a ballot with only two names – Joe Miller (R) and Scott McAdams (D). In that poll Miller scored 36% in a three way race for the Alaska Senate seat.
And then, stuff happened. No doubt about it… Joe Miller has had a very bad month.
Think of it all (everything goes all blurry, and we hear gentle strains of harp music as we view the montage of the train wreck) We hear the mumbly voice of Joe Miller… I mean “We hrrr the mmmmbly voice of Joe Milrrrr”
I’m against farm subsidies, unless I take them.
I think unemployment insurance is unconstitutional, except for my wife.
I think that government entitlement programs are bad, unless they pay for my college.
I think Obamacare is socialism, but I love my VA health care and benefits, and my kids used Denali KidCare
I’d like to abolish the Department of Education… after all my kids are homeschooled.
I want to repeal social security eventually, just not for my parents.
I think taxes are bad so I’m not going to pay them... I’ll just let you do it.
I’ll take the Tea Party’s money, but my campaign doesn’t want to be associated with them.
I’ll just forget to tell you why I left my government job that paid for my Masters degree because I was using other people’s government computers for my personal business.
I’m going to throw another staffer under the bus and blame them for tweeting that I’m picking out drapes, and prying the name plate off Lisa Murkowski’s door in D.C.
I’m a fiscal conservative who wants to go to Washington to get the fiscal house in order, just ignore my tens of thousands of dollars in credit card debt.
My wife and I are the “most disclosed” couple in politics… except for the financial disclosure form I filed five months late after someone else noticed.
I’m all about Alaska, not D.C….except when I’m in D.C. campaigning for dollars, and talking to Fox News.
I don’t like answering uncomfortable questions about my background, so I think I won’t.
If building a wall as an immigration policy worked for East Germany, then heck! We should do it too!
And if anyone does try to call me on any of this, I’ll just have my unlicensed Rent-A-Goons throw you in handcuffs and detain you. They did that in East Germany too!
Whew… It’s been quite a ride. We’ve been waiting to see how much this devastating series of political body blows have affected his popularity. Here’s the shocker… According to a recent CNN/Time/Opinioin Research poll, it would appear that the people seem to love that sort of stuff in their politicians. Mr. Miller actually went up one percent! That’s a pretty neat trick. If he starts eating puppies, he’ll win in a landslide!
“HUH?” you are asking yourself. Well, it’s obvious to any thinking breathing person who’s even remotely paying attention to politics in the state that there is NO way Joe Miller has benefited from the series of fiascos of the last month. No way. So what gives? You’re smart people. You’re probably thinking, “This poll is whacked.” And you would be correct. I shall pin a gold star on your sweater.
Now let’s look at why it’s “whacked” as you so colorfully put it.
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll takes the methodology that most pollsters agree is the best way to assess this race, with a write-in candidate – and then it crumples it up in a wad and pitches it across the room into the waste basket. We should note that it’s almost impossible to get accurate poll numbers on this race. Even 538/NY Times polling guru Nate Silver pointed out in his own forecast, a penalty needs to be applied to Murkowski’s numbers “in evaluating surveys that treat her as if she were a named option on the ballot, as there is some evidence that write-in candidates underperform in these types of polls.” Basically this poll asked voters if they’d vote for Murkowski as though that’s what they’d see on their ballot when they walked into the booth. And this, as we know, is not going to be the case. So the results not only aren’t accurate, but they aren’t even as accurate as it’s possible to make them. They basically didn’t even try.
Other than misleading voters, this matters for a number of reasons. In similar surveys, when the name of the write-in candidate is explicitly added to the question, (which does not replicate the ballot experience in the booth), the results vary by as much as 25%. That’s a LOT. In fact that right there is enough to make this poll pretty much useless.
In late September The Anchorage Press reported an Ivan Moore poll that underscores this. In that survey when the Murkowski name was used the results indicated that 43% of those surveyed were supporting her. However, when the name was not used reflecting the actual voting booth experience, that number was only 18% – a difference of 25%!
Other races support this as well. For instance, in 1992, in what political analyst Mark Blumenthal called “the most similar scenario I have heard of to date” for Alaska’s race, then Governor of West Virginia, Gaston Caperton was challenged in his primary by Charlotte Pritt. Pritt lost the primary, but decided to run a write-in campaign. She’d already secured 100,000 signatures to get in the race in the first place, and figured she had a pretty good shot. In that campaign polling showed when her name was asked as part of the poll question, she posted a modest 16% of the vote. When her name was not asked, polling indicated she had the support of a paltry 9% of the public. She finished the actual race with 6%. Ouch. The pollster in that race, Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker noted: “’the non-prompt method appears to be the way to go’ in Alaska.”
CNN/Time was not, apparently, listening to Brad Coker, more’s the pity. It would have been nice to have some more accurate numbers. If these numbers were any good, it would show this, when comparing the Ivan Moore poll to the CNN poll – In one month:
Joe Miller would go from 36% to 37% with a gain of +1. (Not bad for Joe’s No Good Terrible Horrible Very Bad Month)
Lisa Murkowski would go from 43% to 37% for a loss of -6. (This loss NOT including the fact that they actually used her name in the second poll and not the first for that 25% fudge factor, and they didn’t account for ballot error of about 7%, or legal challenges…. Hmmm. Not looking great for Lisa)
Scott McAdams would go from a 14% to a 23% for a gain of +9. (Upward McMentum shows despite the ‘bogus factor’)
So there you have it.
And just to forewarn you, write-in votes won’t even be counted until November 8, with the hope of a final answer to this circus of a race coming in late November… if you’re an optimist.
And so Alaska prepares for the battle of the lawyers, (and no, not Lisa and Joe themselves) with legal teams at the ready for all three candidates as they scrap and claw over every potential misspelling, forgotten oval, abbreviation, and mistake. Brace yourselves… it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
I’ve literally had about 10 phone calls at my house for polls over the past month — three last night. I answered the first few, but now hang up on them. This tells me there is nothing random about these polls – they are calling people they know will answer them, leaving out those too busy. Let’s not forget the fact that young folks don’t typically have landlines, some folks use Skype, others don’t have phones at all.
If you believed polls, Dewey beat Truman…
Scott still has my vote.
Well, this kinda misstates the first Moore poll because Ivan was clever and only mentioned Lisa’s name on a follow up. In any event, this article’s assessment says the CNN poll is wrong but then uses it to establish momentum as compared to Moore’s poll – neither of which, according to the article, even used preferred methodology. I agree that no poll should be overly relied on, but I think this account of things adds to the confusion. My sense, for good or ill, is that the race is still between Miller and Murkowski… Scott has only ever been in 3rd and there’s darn little time to Dig out of that. Now my significant other is mad at me for getting into this.
Joe Miller demonstrates the kind of Senator he’ll be for Alaska – he’s sued Jim Whittaker for disclosing that Miller was disciplined while working as an Assistant Borough Attorney.
See: http://newsminer.com/view/full_story/9989792/article-Alaska-Senate-candidate-Miller-files-complaint-against-former-Fairbanks-borough-mayor?instance=home_news_window_left_top_1
That Yale law degree certainly comes in handy – especially for a campaign that has decided to not discuss the candidate’s past but also now seems determined to make sure no one else does either.
Just another reason why we must all work to make sure Scott McAdams is our next US Senato
Was told yesterday by someone who visited the Murkowski office in Soldotna that “Lisa Murkowski” armbands or something to that effect were available. Hmmm….
Very well written and highly informative. Thanks for all the links! This kind of writing (and the great comments) are what keep me visiting Mudflats.
Call me silly, but ALL of McAdam’s commercials and debate comments have been positive and lighthearted.
After people feel overwhelmed and literally beaten down this election by all the negative CRAP being flung at them over the airwaves (by all that massive money coming in from outside) – don’t people hit a point? I don’t watch TV much but tonight, just watching Survivor, watching the Dino Weasel Rossi WA advertisements, I just wanted to take another shower.
So, if people are endlessly bombarded with negative, they may say “Hey, I remember that Big Guy, he sounded pretty good & made me smile” and just mark the oval they see with McAdam’s name beside?
I say educate eveyone 18yrs old and older. Every vote counts, Vote or stop bitchin.
Thanks for trying to educate people on polls. The sooner, the better. Question every one. Find out the methodology, the pollster, the questions and the number of people polled. Otherwise, you are just asking to be treated like silly putty.
I don’t understand exactly how this counting will go since Lisa is not even on the ballot. Is there some percentage a person has to get to win the election? If by chance Joe Miller does get 37% of the vote and Scott McAdams does get 23% of the vote, isn’t that a majority of the electorate? Why would they then count Lisa Murkowski’s votes at all? This has probably all been explained, but I must have missed it. I guess she could still get 40% in that case which would beat Miller, and that must be why they say they only count the write in votes if it can affect the election. But if Miller gets 37% and McAdams gets 27%, then there is no need to count Murkowski votes at all?? What a mess. If this is right, I can see why some say a vote for Lisa is a vote for Miller. I wonder about the polls though since so many people only have a cell phone.
Please add to the top of your list of Joe’s No Good Terrible Horrible Very Bad Month;
Joe got into a 3 way accident the day after the primary. He claimed it was someone else’s fault.
Then the police ticketed Joe because it was JOE’S FAULT!
Then Joe said he was ticketed because he was the GOP Senate Candidate and was singled out.
ALSO…
Joe made the Palin’s mad because Joe refused to say Sarah would make a great president back in September. Prior to that, Sarah Palin was tweeting about how awesome Joe was twice a week up until September 17th. Vindictive Sarah hasn’t tweeted one time about Joe ever since…
Will Sarah Palin be voting for Scott McAdams?
I only hope that when people get in the booth to vote their conscience tells them to vote for the one candidate whose integrity and strength of character stand out. Forget the polls and vote for the guy who will make us proud when he gets to the Senate.
I’m voting for the Big Guy. Win or lose, he will be able to hold his head high after November 2. No matter what this year brings, his and our future look bright if he continues to be a voice of reason and intelligence.
(Hey, Scott, if you’re reading these comments, it was a pleasure to meet you at the Dispatch debate the other night. Your sense of humor and goodheartedness won over a bunch of people.)
Go Big Guy! I’ll have my own chance to chat with him tomorrow night.
As you say, polls don’t count. As I say: it’s important to feel good about what you so in the voting booth.
What’s so spooky about releasing the ‘results’ of these polls is, people look at them, figure the person they really would rather have elected doesn’t stand a chance, and cast their ballot for the ‘lesser of two evils’ who *does* –according to the poll(s)– have a chance.
For some inexplicable reason, our electorate hasn’t figured out that no matter how well OR how *poorly* a candidate polls, it they get *more* votes than the other candidates do, they win! Although polls can (and, unfortunately, do) influence voters, polls don’t count – votes in the ballot box do. I think this is something we have to repeat over and over again to folks…to hell with the polls — if you want a candidate to win, vote for *that* candidate! beth.
Exactly beth. The future has not yet occurred and anything is still possible, polls be damned. I think this one is going to be very close but hopefully Joe and Lisa will have wasted so much ammo on each other that Scott will be able to walk right in. Man, I am on pins and needles right now waiting for this election!
Joe’s supporters seem to have the same thug behavior as he does. I was driving through Kenai today and there are about split 50/50 Joe and Leasa signs. someone had spray-painted “No RINO” on a lot of Leasa’s big signs. In Soldotna, some of Leasa’s signs had been torn down and left on the ground or shredded. i don’t want either of these people to win but defacing or destroying yard signs just seems WRONG to me (whatever side you are on). No one has said anything to me about my Scott McAdams button yet and they still let me use the bathroom at businesses that have Leasa signs out front. (heh)
I still think the repubs are going to shred each other on this one. Their vote certainly seems split here.
GO SCOTT!
The Native coporations can do as they please but if people can get the natives them selves tolisten to Scott and realise he will be better for them and work for them and not the coporation bottom line Scott can win.His message just has to get out their to the native people maybe thru the internet.
Here another interesting post on the Senate race from Northwest News: Miller files complaint against Native Corporation PAC donating to Murkowski. McAdams says there should be full disclosure of campaign donations and he will not accept corporate donations.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/10/20/1390357/miller-files-complaint-against.html?dsq=88699382&dsq_cbp=null#comment-88699382
Moose Pucky’s been polling the critters in the slough. Strong support for McAdams here.
Now, now, you really need to be fair in your list of Joe’s activities. When he used his Fairbanks Borough colleagues’ computers for nefarious purposes, he says it was during lunch time so it wasn’t so bad (the peanut butter and jelly defense). When he took farm subsidies, things were different then. When he didn’t file his financial disclosure forms, it was because he just found out about it (the “I’m not smart enough to do a google search of senate candidate requirements” defense.) He is strong on defense.
I’ll have to remember that PB&J defense if I ever commit a crime:
“But, Your Honor, I robbed that bank on my lunch hour so it doesn’t really count!”
“But Officer, I used that stolen car to get a cheeseburger at the McDonald’s drive through!”
Somehow, using other people’s computers and wiping the caches clean afterwards indicates that he just MIGHT have known he was doing something wrong. Dontcha think???
I’ll have my seat belt fastened, my tray table and seat back in the upright and locked position, and the all-important barf bag at the ready tuesday night!
I can see that there is some justified frustration that has lead folks to vote for Miller, the T- bagger candidate.
If it was my party that claimed to be fiscally conservative while they doubled the debt I’d be pissed off too. But I can’t understand voting for him now that he has been exposed as a hypocrite.
They need Dems to vote Lisa or she won’t win and Scott will. She’s not going to woo Dems by bashing Scott. Her Twitter minions yammer on and act condescending, and Facebook comments too. They hurt her chances by pissing off Dems, and that’s just fine with me. Let them look like the desperate sore losers they are.
Sorry but if you can’t handle losing, I don’t want to listen to you whine about it.
She had her shot at Miller and lost. Should have been Game Over. I waffled for a bit at the beginning, afraid of what a Sen Miller would do to this state. I’m not afraid any longer. Murkowski is Miller Lite. NEITHER is who I want representing me in DC.
I was uncertain at the beginning, too, but got over it quick.
Part of what is going on here in this polling is that some people are leaning toward the familiar (in this case, a name, a known political quantity) in the face of significant disruption in the electoral landscape. The more McAdams becomes familiar, the more this dissipates.
Meanwhile these D’s are like Linus with a Lisa security blanket over their shoulder. So snuggly, so safe. They should see Lisa for what she is–Lucy, about to pull the football out from under Charlie Brown with her floor votes. For the umpteenth time.
As AKM points out in the post, it’s one thing for folks to say they’ll vote for Murkowski but another thing to step into a voting booth and not see her name. She’s not even listed in the State of Alaska Official Voting Pamphlet. I’m thinking Out of Sight, Out of Mind. For people like us who are tuned in to what’s happening, we know she’s running a write in campaign. How many uniformed voters will know to write her name in AND put it in the US Senate race (not elsewhere) … let alone spell it reasonably correctly. Just ain’t gonna happen.
Aren’t the people who’re not tuned-in the very ones who don’t bother voting?
How many people head off to vote with absolutely no idea of how they’re going to vote? Won’t there be some Mrksokwy volunteers in the vicinity, to remind the clueless (who presumably have have never heard of McAdams or whats-his-name either) that Murkwsky is running as a “write-in”. Her name should ring a bell!
You’d have to assume that voters competent enough to find themselves, somehow, waiting in line at the voting center, on the right day, should be able to pull of the feat of casting a write-in vote. At least, those with driver’s licenses!
Ya got that right I voted for Feingold every year and Sensenbrenner who is a republican house of rep member because I knew who he was and had never hear of who ever was running against him.I sure learned not to do that this year since he sent me an answer to my letter asking him to support the health care bill.Name recognation means a lot in the voting booth and elsewhere
Awesome analogy using the Peanuts characters. Loved it!
Stay strong, Mudflatters! Lisa got us into this mess; I’m not counting on her to get us out of it. If defeating Miller were her prime objective, she would have accepted her primary loss and have let Alaskans choose between Miller and McAdams. VERY distinct choice; McAdams would have drawn from mod R’s and Dems and almost certainly would have won. Her insistence on being a write-in muddies the water considerably. It also shows that this is about ego and the Palin-Murkowski feud more than just about beating Miller for the good of Alaska.
Murkowski’s guy Steve Wackowski yesterday said, ” … we think Scott McAdams is bad for Alaska.” The Dem bashing has begun! Just remember that she NEEDS us more than we WANT her. Don’t vote defensively. The world won’t end regardless of who wins. If it’s Miller, he won’t be able to push through his radical agenda in DC because it won’t have bipartisan support. His NO vote is the same as Murkowski’s so there’s no difference there. If Murkowski wins, Dems won’t have another shot at that seat for probably 40 years! Yes, FORTY! We have a shot. Don’t waste it! Vote Scott.
Sorry that this is off topic but I didn’t want anyone to miss this: Sarah Palin desecrates the American flag!
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/10/20/sarah_palin_american_flag/index.html
Holy Cow, little miss USA, Constitutionalist, Tea Party Patriot, Apple Pie and all that stuff, signs an American Flag. Can you imagine if a dem, any dem, had done the same? Can you just hear Glenn Beck cry and O’Reilly groan? Can’t your just hear the hate spewing from Limbaugh’s fat jowls?
Please put this in the open thread. They stay open 24 hours until the next one goes up. That way people can comment on what you have to say! Thanks! AKM
It sure looks to me like she signed her name on the flag.—-Hope someone call her out on it. Big Time!!!!!!