Believe it or not, PPP’s newest Alaska poll finds that Hillary Clinton would actually have a chance to win the state in 2016, but only if she were running against… wait for it… Sarah Palin. Clinton would lead Palin almost by double digits 49/40 in a hypothetical match up. Only 18% of Alaskans think Palin should run in 2016 compared to 77% who would rather sit naked, strapped to a chair in the middle of a mosquito swarm, listening to nails being scratched over a chalk board. Even if you only ask Republican voters, 72% think she shouldn’t run.

Clinton trails the other Republicans we tested, although she would make the state closer than it’s been in a while. Chris Christie leads her by 8 points at 46/38, Jeb Bush leads her by 7 at 49/42, Rand Paul is up 6 at 49/43, Marco Rubio has a 3 point advantage at 45/42, and Paul Ryan leads by a single point at 47/46.

Reflecting the strong standing we’ve seen for him a lot of places lately Rand Paul is the top choice of GOP voters in Alaska with 18% to 14% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 9% for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 8% for Ted Cruz, 5% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for George Zimmerman. In a Palin and Zimmerman-less field Paul gets up to 20% with Bush at 15%, Christie and Ryan at 14%, Rubio at 10%, Cruz at 9%, and Santorum at 6%.

Yes, they asked that. And yes, 2% of Alaskans said they’d vote for George Zimmerman for President of the United States. But this is supposed to be a little Alaska lovefest, so I’m not going to dwell on that. Moving right along…

2) Gay Marriage

Alaskans continue to move further in support of gay marriage. 45% of voters now favor it to 48% who are opposed. That’s a 5 point net movement since February when it came out 43/51. 69% of voters in the state support at least civil unions for same sex couples to only 28% opposed to any form of legal recognition. That includes support from 88% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 50% of Republicans. Keep going, Alaska. You’re headed in the right direction. Your libertarianism will outshine your bigotry any day now.

3) Lisa Murkowski

So, what’s up with Lisa Murkowski, who won her re-election bid as a write-in Republican against Tea Party candidate Joe Miller, and Democrat Scott McAdams? Her approval numbers are plummeting. In February, 54% of voters approved of her to 33% who disapproved, but now that spread has declined  to 47/41. She’s most popular with independents (51/36), followed by Democrats (47/38), and then members of her own party (40/49). Her ranking with independents hasn’t changed much, but she’s dropped a net 25 points with Democrats and 22 with Republicans since then.

4) Senate Bill 21, the oil giveaway

And what about Seanoco Parnell’s Senate Bill 21, the massive oil wealth giveaway? You know, the one where Alaska opens up it’s treasury, hands it all to the oil companies and then says “Have a nice day! We hope we get this back some time! Byyye!”  Well, go figure, it’s not very popular with Alaskans. Only 30% of voters support it to 46% who don’t. Republicans favor it 39/23, but independents (32/51) and Democrats (13/69) oppose it by wider margins. And let’s remember that the coalition forces of Independents and Democrats FAR outnumber the registered Republicans in the state.

5) I can see Russia from my house!

And finally we learn that Alaskans really do have a self-deprecating sense of humor.  12% of Alaskans say they can see Russia from their houses to 87% who can’t. That’s comparable to the 11% who said they could see Russia when they polled the question in 2010. Of course the only people who actually can, live on the remote Alaskan island of Little Diomede who can see the other remote Russian island of Big Diomede on a clear day.  I mean, unless I climb up on my roof with a good pair of binoculars. Then I can tell you what Edward Snowden is having for breakfast.