Palin’s “Hungry Markets” Not So Hungry. (Updated – Andrew Halcro Weighs In)
In several recent interviews, Governor Sarah Palin has told the country about the importance of getting “Alaska’s rich natural resources to hungry markets” in the Lower 48. And she’s been celebrating a new alliance between Trans-Canada Corp., and Exxon to build Alaska’s huge $26 billion dollar gas pipe line project.
In light of all this buzz, it was interesting that an article just came out in The Financial Post, with the ominous title “Demand for Arctic Gas Dries Up.”
The North American natural gas industry is “overbuilt,” pointing to weak prices for a long time, said [Steve] Letwin, Houston-based executive vice-president, gas transportation and international, at Canadian pipeline giant Enbridge Inc.
Years of worry about supply shortages because of the maturing of conventional supplies have been replaced by worries there aren’t enough customers for the 1,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in shale deposits — enough to last a century — found in the past three years, plus liquefied natural gas coming from offshore that is “needed like a hole in the head,” Mr. Letwin said in an interview.
The biggest problem according to Enbridge, Trans-Canada’s biggest competition? Insufficient demand.
Abundant natural gas in other locations in Canada, and Texas which are much closer to Lower 48 markets further chill the market for Alaska gas, according to Letwin.
We knew that despite the media flutter surrounding the latest Trans-Canada/Exxon deal, we’re years away from actually having a pipeline. When does Letwin think there may be some demand for Arctic gas from Alaska and Canada? Not until 2025.
It’s going to be a long couple of decades.
UPDATE:
For another take on the real story behind the new Palin-Exxon alliance, Andrew Halcro weighs in saying that “while Exxon scores positive points for siding with the state and progressing the pipeline project, they have left themselves plenty of room to jump off the AGIA train before the crash.” Read the whole piece HERE.
EnCana Corp. CEO Randy Eresman said on Monday the company has shut-in wells producing a couple of hundred million cubic feet of natural gas in each of Canada and the United States because of low prices for the fuel.
[snip] Speaking to reporters at an investment conference, Eresman said EnCana, North America’s largest natural gas producer, has chosen not to bring some new wells on stream and has shut in other wells where it costs more to produce the gas than it can be sold for.
“In some cases, we’re getting below the lifting costs. You more or less have to shut them down,” he said.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/fp/EnCana+shuts+wells+prices/1699652/story.html
comment: that there would be your hungry market being “not hungry”
We don’t want your natural gas, Sarah. Have you tried to sell it to Russia?
“The two primary rivers which will be affected are the Susquehanna and Ohio.”
well actually I am talking about the piece that runs through Wayne county up into new york. crosses right through the delaware
but sure sus-q county has alot more activity. and so does broome in NY.
my last post tonight (waaay late here…)
When I bought my Kentucky Home farm, I asked for a title search. None of the lawyers here knew what that was! I directed the lawyer to look for any and all liens AND who owned mineral rights. If I did not have mineral rights, the land deal was off.
Guess what????
All of the mineral rights to my farm were leased out back the 1960s for $1 an acre a year.
Guess what?
The mining company NEVER paid a DIME EVER on any of those leases (NEVER!), but the leases were still legally valid four decades later.
Except i instructed my lawyer to get that bogus lease vacated. Which he did and in the process learned that all of HIS lands were also held hostage by this lease and just about everyone of his clients.
Forewarned is forearmed,
I Like Gramiam’s suggestion. — “Sarah Who?” —
From June 2008: “…the (court) decision could sour already testy relations between the oil industry and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a Republican. “I am extremely disappointed,” she said in a statement. “The Court gutted the jury’s decision on punitive damages.”
I wonder, after getting into bed with Exxon in the AGIA deal last week, will this cause Palin to leap right out of bed again and applaud this court decision? Or will she be her same old hypocritical self, and be a silent partner to Exxon when she should really speak up?
(as in so many other issues that affect individual Alaskans that she remains silent on, or says one thing and does another)
@CO almost a native:
I can definitely understand the health probs. I’ve seen it in the fish in the Ohio River since the 1960s (don’t eat what you catch!).
But I’ve also experienced the little quakes and the subsidence. Far as I’m concerned, fracking will definitely cause subsidence and, as a result, sinkholes and/or quakes depending on the local geology.
Ben Muse’s site on Arctic Economics has always been an interesting reference. Click on the Oil and Gas tag.
25% of the World’s Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle? Maybe, Maybe Not.
OT:
Letterman is on; his intro was hilarious- “how many of you are here to see if I insult someone else?” Said anyone could use a bag of his hate mail if they couldn’t rent a beach chair. Compared the reactions to the Iranian election to his own situation…classic David Letterman.
@justafarmer #123:
We haven’t had earthquakes related to the shale oil pilot projects in Colorado, but there have been clustering of severe health problems: cancers and other diseases. Companies say there’s no connection, but they are still refusing to disclose what chemicals are used. The other big issue is the amount of water needed- we don’t have enough here in the High Plains Desert. I think the state will refuse to issue any more permits, until these major problems are addressed.
and just thinking about the carbon footprint constructing this pipeline will have…YIKES!
Here’s the info on the court decision today: http://www.adn.com/exxonvaldez/story/831867.html
128 Gramiam Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 7:11 PM
Unless the information about Gino has something to do with The pipeline or any other substantive governmental matter, I really don’t care to hear another word about her.
I agree. Can we keep things on topic, please?
nswfm CA–They’re also making them pay the 5.9% interest back to Sept. 1996 when the original award was granted by the court. Of course, the evil company will prob. appeal that all the way back up to the SCOTUS… URG! 🙁
Unless the information about Gino has something to do with The pipeline or any other substantive governmental matter, I really don’t care to hear another word about her. To listen further or post about her personal life, simply encourages more attention to her. Such attention is best reserved for positive people with positive things to say, not immature, self-absorbed egomaniacs. If we all just ignore the silly woman, she will not only not win another term as governor, but will never come close to running for President. My motto for the future is “Sarah Who?”
Thanks Aussie, I was driving and commenting while at the stop lights.
I really thought since the beginning of the Trans-Canada involvement in the gas pipeline that the gas would end up going to the Alberta tar sands fields and give them the energy that they are lacking to process the tar sands into oil. There was a big write up in Nat Geo a few months ago regarding the extraction of oil from the tar sands and it mentioned that much more natural gas was required that was currently available to heat the sands and liquefy the oil.
The proposed trans canadian pipeline runs right thru the tar sands area; there was talk years ago of running it thru the tar sands extraction mines and then whatever was leftover would run thru a pipe to the midwest. Sounds to me like it might just all be used in Alberta.
Funny, using natural gas to heat up tarry sands and liquefy petroleum products.
When I was in 8th grade I called Exxon in Colorado and they sent me a box of oil shale rock. My teacher and I heated it up, after crushing it, and then ran it thru a cold water jacket and condensed the oil from the vapors from the heated rock. It took much more gas to run the heater that heated up the crushed rock to release the oil molecules than oil that we ended up with from the process. I think the tar sands are like that; it requires massive amounts of energy input (natural gas for heating) to extract a minute amount of oil from the sands.
However, if there is a current “glut” of natural gas in the lower 48,perhaps this is how our gas should be used; to extract petroleum. On another note, it would be worthwhile for everyone to read about the environmental degradation surrounding the pristine Athabaskan River region of Canada due to the oil and tar sand mines. The Gov’t has pretty much turned a blind eye towards environmental catastrophe as long as the sands are producing oil and making money.
someone earlier mentioned that there was no correlation between fracking and earthquakes.
As someone who lives in a mining area and who has family living in areas where ground water has been pumped out in unrealistic amounts, there’s a geologic term known as “subsidence”.
In the groundwater deletion areas, this is obvious with major sinkholes suddenly swallowing home literally overnight.
In coal mining country (where I live), subsidence happens all the time when old mine shafts, underground retention areas, etc., give way. Locally there’s a small quake and then all sorts of contaminated water flashfloods into local creeks and streams and eventually to major rivers (this happened a few years ago to the Ohio River after the Big Sandy debacle).
Anyway, here’s how it goes, specifically with “fracking”: the shale layers are literally fractured/blasted. What happens as a result? The shale layers collapse. There are NO old-time mining timber frames to hold up the roofs. The shale layer collapses, what happens to what’s above? You guessed it….
It’s common sense, which apparently is in short supply to the mining companies and governments.
Just read transcript of Letterman’s apology… Gee whiz, I wish everyone would let it go. Letterman doesn’t deserve this. Imagine what Wooten and Monegan have had to go through being on Palin’s hit list. Keep miles away from this vindictive venemous woman.
http://weblogs.newsday.com/entertainment/tv/blog/2009/06/bulletin_david_letterman_apolg.html
nswfm CA Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Did I just here on NPR that the 9th Circuit Court just spanked Exxon?
———————————————–
ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Exxon Mobil Corp. was ordered Monday to pay about $500 million in interest on punitive damages for the Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska, nearly doubling the payout to Alaska Natives, fishermen, business owners and others harmed by the 1989 disaster.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090615/ap_on_bi_ge/us_exxon_valdez
About the Valdez.
Did I just here on NPR that the 9th Circuit Court just spanked Exxon?
AGA statement: “critical AKn resources will help all Americans more cleanly run homes & power way of life.” More@http://tinyurl.com/ljm7lo
She must have written the latest twit, I mean tweet.
LNG to Asia, the only way!
Speaking of natural gas and Alaska:
Could Enstar get LNG cheaper (from somewhere like Asia) than what we’re paying here for Cook Inlet natural gas? I wonder if Enstar has a fiduciary responsibility to seek a lower cost gas supplier– Cook Inlet natural gas is twice as expensive as it used to be.
China is purchasing wholesale natural gas from the Pacific Rim for less than 4 dollars per million cubic feet– much, much less than what we’re paying for Cook Inlet gas. Could we get a better deal here too? Prices are down– perhaps now is the time to seek a long term supply contract.
However, I still think we aren’t coming close to considering all the options for delivery of Alaska’s natural gas (or the energy from it). Electrical power is provided over long distances. I wonder if high voltage power lines could provide power to Canadian or northern American cities. Liquified natural gas gets shipped across the globe.
The only option Halcro thinks is relevant is natural gas pipeline to the midwest.
inJuneau:
Of course you know better than I– you live there. Thanks.
This skyscraper has been powered by gas turbines since its completion in 1972. I worked in this building in the ‘eighties and there was a power strike so millions of office workers were sent home – but not us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/140_William_Street
Has anybody figured out how much petroleum will be necessary to build the pipe line?
Fuel for engines etc. But also fuel for mining ore and producing the pipe, the construction equipment, housing for and heat etc for workers. Offices, electricity, equipment and paper for the bureaucrats that will push the paper work throughout.
This is going to be a huge carbon foot print just to build and maintain.
Aussie Blue Sky,
I posted the Dennis Zaki link on the blog the other day. It’s not getting enough attention.
Isn’t it a little stupid to hold your big “CBS Must Fire Dave March” the day after Dave makes his second apology? I’m thinking that we ought to start a pool, guessing (no online betting here) as to how long Sarah will keep it going, how long it takes for Dave to fire off another Palin joke, how many people actually show up tomorrow (New York’s demographics aren’t exactly Sarah Palin’s demographics).
My guess is that Sarah will find a way to keep it going this week; Dave will be a gentleman and wait for her to do something else stupid (next week), number of people will be far less than the number they report. (Going way out on a limb, here).
“McCain Thinks Palin Knows More About Energy Than Anyone Else in the United States”
Guess McCain was wrong about Sarah – again.
Aussie Blue Sky,
This is from Wiki re using Compressed nat. gas for autos. Interesting to see the leading countries using it!!
Compressed natural gas (methane) is a cleaner alternative to other automobile fuels such as gasoline (petrol) and diesel. As of December 2008, the countries with the highest number of CNG vehicles, ranked numerically, were Pakistan [11], Argentina, Brazil, Iran and India. The energy efficiency is generally equal to that of gasoline engines, but lower compared with modern diesel engines. Gasoline/petrol vehicles converted to run on natural gas suffer because of the low compression ratio of their engines, resulting in a cropping of delivered power while running on natural gas (10%-15%). CNG-specific engines, however, use a higher compression ratio due to this fuel’s higher octane number of 120–130
@Nan:
I saw it on CNN; because the SC legislator immediately apologized and Michele Obama is classy, it didn’t become a huge brouhaha. What hypocrites those Palinbots are-
Isabella Says: made about Alaska governor Sarah Palin and her daughter Willow.
It’s so easy to fall into repeating things we know aren’t so, just because we hear it over and over.
gov Palin claims it was about daughter Willow. Letterman used the word daughter, no name.
Letterman re-addresses Palin: ‘I had no idea [Willow] was there’
http://tiny.cc/n43Li June 15, 2009
Here’s the full text of Letterman’s comments, which will be telecast tonight.
While we’re discussing fracking is a good time to watch Dennis Zaki’s alarming video from a Pebble Mine press conference.
http://www.alaskareport.com/
Oh cripe – that should have been OT
Going to the open thread now. Mea culpa – I’m sorry.
Nan
Star: Where’s the outrage about Michelle being related to a monkey???
_____________________
Has anyone heard ANYTHING from Michelle about that idiot’s comment?
NO. And that’s the way SP should have handled this (except she just couldn’t. And didn’t.) Idjit woman
Well, Palin may have won this battle, but she just lost the war.
Does anyone think that Letterman will forget this incident? I am also sure that other late night comedians are really pissed about Palin telling them what they can say and do. Her day will come when she wants attention from these guys, and hopefully, she won’t get it. At least not the positive attention that she so craves.
zippety doo dah…zippety aaay
Gas pipeline threatening to turn our scenic river byway into a straight and narrow fast-lane death trap and our shoreline into a toxic waste construction zone. Good to see it delayed. Maybe we can come up with some sustainable economic ideas in the meantime.
So many better things to do in Alaska… like take the energy money and use to promote energy -efficient construction and conservation. Improve ferry service and support Alaskan residents and businesses. Promote healthy watersheds and sustainable wild fish stocks. Expand community gardens and farmer’s markets. Provide health care for all with a focus on prevention. Support small businesses and sustainable communities.
McCain: Palin Most Knowledgeable Person in America on Energy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fRjtAK66as
McCain: Palin Most Knowledge Person in America on Energy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fRjtAK66as
I am sorry Letterman apologized because she will never let this die. I am so sick of fake outrage by the right wingnuts. They will never be happy. They weren’t happy when Bush was in office, the ran both houses of Congress, the Supreme court, and all the radio stations.
clydedog Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 11:17 AM
I think you have to highly compress it for cars which is a technical and PR problem.
————————————————
No technical problems and no PR problems. Greed problems.
Americans have always been encouraged to depend on oil for everything because that’s where the money is. U.S. Big Oil doesn not want you using gas (even though they own it) as long as there is one drop of oil left in the ground.
http://www.easybreathers.org/explore/transportationtech/lpg.html
God, oh God…I can’t wait for the day when palin will be the ‘former’ candidate in anybody’s politics…GO AWAY! …you’re not wanted here!
Isabella- She is not about to accept any apology from DL..Shes going to milk this for all it’s worth….Where’s the outrage about Michelle being related to a monke??? What a bunch of frkken sick people…
Mrs. Gino’s Right hand is lining her pockets with all of the jingle she can and her left hand is busy embarassing Alaskans by building the biggest smoke screen to cover up her inability to speak anything but tossed salade. Holy cow – we thought she’d built a smokescreen when she was elected Governor In Name Only. She continues to surpass all expectations. Those aren’t Alaskan forest fires folks, that’s Palin’s smokescreen This Alaskan mudpuppy would like to thank her fellow pups for their humor…such a creative bunch of minds. Life is Good watching Sarah and Todd show the world what lengths two people will go to to keep their faces in the news.
Exxon ordered to pay $507.5M for 1989 Alaska spill
by The Associated Press
Monday, June 15, 2009
SAN FRANCISCO — Exxon Mobil Corp. has been ordered to pay $507.5 million in punitive damages to Alaska natives, fishermen, business owners and others harmed by the massive 1989 oil spill off Alaska.
The ruling by 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco on Monday affirms the figure set by the U.S. Supreme Court last year. It also awards interest payments at 5.9 percent to plaintiffs from the date of the original judgment in 1996.
Plaintiffs originally were awarded $5 billion, but that amount was cut in subsequent appeals by Irving, Texas-based Exxon.
The tanker Exxon Valdez ran aground March 24, 1989, spewing 11 million gallons of crude into Prince William Sound. The incident remains the worst oil spill in the nation’s history.
http://www.ktuu.com/
the problem child “Discussion continues on the open thread”
Oh damn, so sorry I had two windows open for both threads. I thought I was posting there. Everyone, very sincere apologizes for crashing your truly informative and meaningful dialog. Truly.
Yep, Dave did it, it’s over at huffpo. As if her head wasn’t fat enough…now she’ll think she’s so darn important even Letterman kisses her a**. We all know her rage wasn’t about any of the kids, it was all about the sl*tty airline
line that ticked her off. I hope the iceberg comes soon….
AKM — sorry — wrong tab on my computer.
Eddie Burke as guilty of escalating this too. Listening to him. Rape — BS
Hey Eddie — Pot meet Kettle.
Has he ever apologized for what he has called people — I highly doubt it.
His ad nauseam attacks are like he’s a Rush Wannabee
Lilybart “She also, too, can’t run because as soon as she “won” she would leave the state to run for President.”
She doesn’t care to take a JOB and never show up. She knows she will not get elected. That there is where she will try to save face.
Since you asked,
http://weblogs.newsday.com/entertainment/tv/blog/2009/06/bulletin_david_letterman_apolg.html
Discussion continues on the open thread 😉
deist–AEL&P won’t even bury the lines under the water from Snettisham to Juneau, when they’ve been taken out twice in less than a year at the same place by avalanches, because it would cost too much. I can’t see anyone being willing to cough up the $ to build a line all the way from Deadhorse to here. The “road” route (from Juneau north to wherever) has upwards of 80 (I think) avalanche zones, and buried or submerged lines end up being very difficult to fix when they do get damaged. I think that letting SE work on its hydro interties makes more sense at this point than trying to tie us in with natural gas or natural gas provided electricity (although I would love to have gas here to use for cooking…).
o/t:
People who are down on hydro must be thinking of the Snake river dams and the problems for the fisheries down south. I don’t recall any of the four dam pool dams causing problems for the fisheries in alaska. If someone wants to spend money run power lines, how about to the bush where they are on diesel power, not Juneau where electricity is about the same as southeast?
Betcha Palin, doesn’t get flowers and WHACK Iif NOTORIOUS FAME WH’RE Paris is more of a lady then, a 45 year old.
http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20175786,00.html
Canadian Neighbour, someone was over at Us Magazine for HOURS straight voting on the poll who was to blame. Outstanding some left a good four or more hours of their lives to such a stupid pursuit.
InJuneau:
I think they could build a power line all the way from Deadhorse to Fairbanks, Southcentral, and Juneau too. I figure even a line to Juneau would be less vulnerable to avalanches– traveling down the transportation corridors to Whitehorse and across to the White Pass, burying the line where necessary, and then submerging it from Skagway to Juneau. I doubt an avalanche would get at it anywhere.
But God only knows how much it would cost!
Thanks for reminding me of the historic value of dams. But dams should be history, and now is the time to start dismantling the “dam” things.
Canadian Neighbour “Letterman has formally apologized to Palin & the two girls. It will air on his show tonight.”
Was someone there at the taping?
Letterman has formally apologized to Palin & the two girls. It will air on his show tonight.
If she responds beyond a thank you — thwack her.
I didn’t say that the lines would cause environmental damage, but that it would be technologically infeasible to build them (you’re the one making the point about AK’s size to Rob in CA; do you really think it’s possible to run lines from there to here that won’t get damaged every winter?). The hydro projects here in SE are SIGNIFICANTLY less environmentally damaging that those on the Columbia and Colorado (both of which I agree need way fewer dams than they have now). However, please bear in mind that the dams on the Columbia helped the US and our allies win WWII by providing the power necessary to build the planes.
OMG did I just read that one of the protest organizers is that loon, Zeilger?
He will do something very stupid, count on it.
Good times.
InJuneau:
Do you think the Hoover Dam is an environmental gem? How about Hetch Hetchy which messed up one of Yosemite’s most beautiful river ecosystems? How about reservoirs?
I get a kick out of folks who think hydro is wonderful. Hydro has screwed up America’s rivers and our environment. I’m a Colorado River (without dams) advocate. I’m a Columbia River (without dams) advocate. Are Juneau’s hydro sources environmentally friendly? Really? Don’t kid yourself– hydro is pollution too.
Why would electrical power lines cause more environmental impact? As your devil’s advocate, I think they may cause less damage.
Rob in CA:
Do you have a globe? Look at it: Alaska is nearly as large as Europe!
I used to live in California too. I remember those sadistic rolling blackouts after Bush got elected where they made it very clear we’d have to pay a ransom to Enron if we wanted to have electricity– one of the reasons I hate Bush– Enron leveraged the federal government to blackmail California.
A natural gas pipeline from the North Slope through Fairbanks and along the Railbelt to Anchorage would do a lot of good, but it would also cost billions of dollars. It would only service a bit more than half the population of Alaska– three or four hundred thousand people, so the capital cost would be perhaps ten thousand dollars or more for every man, woman, and child. That’s a lot of money.
oops, my comment should have said “at least UP in Anch.”
deist–For starters, we get our power from hydro sources down here in Juneau, so I’m pretty sure natural gas provided power would be less environmentally friendly. Secondly, the terrain between here and you up there is NOT condusive to running power lines down to here to connect our “grids”. They can’t even adequately protect our lines from avalanches now, and those are just the ones running to Juneau from Snettisham, 44 miles away…
REALITY CHECK
While thousands in Iran are protesting to demand fair elections, some American politicians and activists are set to protest something that is slightly less important: firing David Letterman.
Protestors have started a “Fire David Letterman” website and are planning to protest the talk show host for jokes her made about Alaska governor Sarah Palin and her daughter Willow.
The protest is being organized by New York State Assemblyman Brian Kolb, attorney Gwendolyn Lindsay-Jackson, and radio talk show host John Ziegler. Earlier in the week, Ziegler was cut off during an interview with MSNBC about the Palin-Letterman controversy.
The only pipeline that needs to be built is one from the N. slope gas reserves sent to the rural communties, with a line down to Valdez to sell LNG to Asia if there’s enough and and a market to make it economical. This pipeline to the lower 48 is just fiction, a waste of time, money and resources. This state needs to focus on our own energy use and independence first and foremost.
InJuneau:
In the lower 48 states, electrical power plants have sold electricity to places more than a thousand miles away. For example, Washington State frequently provides electricity to the Bay Area. Theoretically we could use North Slope natural gas to generate electricity on site and send it across power lines to places as far away as Juneau.
Why don’t we?
As I indicated in my comments above, we haven’t considered nearly all the options for utilization and commercialization of North Slope natural gas. I wonder who is limiting our options, and why they’re doing it.
Question for Alaskans…
Wouldn’t your biggest need be to have instate energy production and distribution? Seems like producing that natural gas and finding ways to deliver it to needy areas of the state would be the biggest priority, while at the same time pushing to develop wind, solar, hydroelectric wherever feasible.
clydedog–some of the electric utilities in the state already use natural gas to generate power (at least us in the Anch. area). They’re actually having problems because of the declines in gas production in Cook Inlet.
One other thing:
I doubt a natural gas pipeline to lower 48 states would ever be economical. We probably wouldn’t buy the steel pipe from the United States– more likely we’d import from China. Currently China sells the U.S. much of its construction materials including steel, glass, and even concrete (the fact we’re importing concrete especially kills me!).
Alaskans have been trying get a North American natural gas pipeline built since about 1980. I know. Been there, done that. I have been very directly exposed to this issue for a long, long time since Jay Hammond was governor.
I doubt anyone(s) will ever cough up the massive money to finance a land-traversing North American project. Not then, not now, not in the future. Too much speculative financial risk. Way, way too expensive. Nothing has changed, nothing is different now, and nothing is ever likely to change. Energy companies still regard this natural gas pipeline as “tax-relief bait” and a tool to acquire binding reduced long term energy tax agreements from the State of Alaska.
For Alaska, a natural gas pipeline to midwest states would be our Holy Grail. But did the Crusaders ever find their Holy Grail? In one word: nope.
It is time for Alaskans to consider alternates. Here are a couple:
1. Intrastate gas line to Valdez.
2. Something else like LNG ice breaking tankers going directly from north slope to western America or Asia.
Like all energy planning, it takes a L-O-N-G time to bring on new resources. Alaskans have been working on this for decades. While d*cking around with it though, other technologies have developed, reducing the value of their resource to something close to nil. This is why we need to start working on alternate energy development NOW – solar, wind and hydrothermal. If we had done it in the late 70’s when Jimmy Carter had originally proposed it, imagine where we would be today (and how many fewer tons of greenhouse gases would have been coughed into the atmosphere). So, is it worth it to continue to pursue the natural gas pipeline? If experts truly believe that there will be a need in 2025 for more natural gas in North America, then, yes keep on trucking. However, something tells me that by the time this pipeline gets built, the other energy alternatives will be far enough along to make LNG obsolete, even if there’s a shortage in the marketplace.
BTW, nice to read Halcro again. He always covered these issues so completely and didn’t shy away from the complexities.
Governor Appoints Permanent Fund Trustee
http://tinyurl.com/m8rkjz
ooops!
honestyinGov Says: Someone Twitter the Tweeterer… twit…. twit…
https://twitter.com/AKGovSarahPalin/status/2176900945
honestyinGov Says: Someone Twitter the Tweeterer… twit…. twit…
https://twitter.com/AKGovSarahPalin/status/2176900945
http://tinyurl.com/m8rkjz
Embassy Suites, part of the Hilton Hotels Corp., pulled advertising on CBS’ site because of complaints, company spokeswoman Kendra Walker told TVGuide.com. The company was not an advertiser on Letterman’s show.
They could use liquid natural gas ice-breaking tankers from the north slope or northwestern Alaska to export natural gas to Asia. The Russians had considered using LNG icebreakers to sell natural gas from their arctic to east coast U.S. states.
20 years ago this may not have been possible but the arctic sea ice is getting thinner. We’d need to do sufficient environmental studies and make sure we wouldn’t be killing whales, seals, etc.
Or we could build a pipeline to Valdez and export from there.
But we should at least have the option to export. The federal government doesn’t want us to have this option, but their attitude is irrational because exports would help balance our current account deficit– that would be good.
We should give first preference to the United States– our country should have the first option to purchase our LNG. But if the U.S. doesn’t want to buy our gas, we should be allowed to seek alternate customers.
I get a kick out of these discussions where we limit the scope of Alaska’s natural gas market to the lower 48 states (and perhaps Canada too). The rest of the world is the rest of our option. The rest of the world is a big, big option.
It’s too bad Palin doesn’t care about Alaska’s “Hungry Markets”: Rural Alaska.
re-read this gem from Halcro, also too. A good read except she’s not doing what she needs to if running for prez, I have to wonder if she isn’t stirring drama up every chance she gets in order to drive book sales.
Or else she’s now owned by big oil with deep pockets and powerful connections who may want her in office to benefit them, george in a dress.
http://www.andrewhalcro.com/re-election_2010_why_palin_bails_out
“What this all means is that if Palin seeks another term as governor, her failed energy policies will be clear as day half way through her second term, thus turning the lights out on her reputation as an energy expert.
If Palin decides not to seek re-election, she preserves the one tool she has used so effectively as governor; she can simply shift blame to someone else, in this case, the next governor.”
“If she goes there will be trouble, because she is unelectable in 2012. A Palin candidacy will collapse under the weight of the competitive pressures as she’ll be fair game for fellow Republicans during the primary battles. With the GOP looking for someone to compete against Obama in 2012, they’re not getting to the dance with Palin and her Dan Quayle brand of baggage.”
61 BigPete Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 12:31 PM
When Andrew Halcro uses the phrase “progressing the pipeline project”, I hope he’s just trying to be funny.
—
I bet he was just being funny. He probably just threw it in to see if anyone noticed, and give the ones who did a good chuckle.
Well, looks like one huge gasline is about to hit Lettermans offices. Let the Palinbot explosions begins… better drop CBS another line.
When Andrew Halcro uses the phrase “progressing the pipeline project”, I hope he’s just trying to be funny.
“Did Palin think she could out-negotiate Exxon?”
That answer is YES. It’s ALWAYS yes.
This was my thought when I read the disgusting blurb about Exxon schmoozing the governor in the big media release a few days back: “Can you say, Desperate Ditz on the loose and let’s take advantage?” They know that all they have to do is be in a position where it looks like they are saving her butt, AND to smother her with Exxon Love in the media, and she is just dumb enough to take the bait. What else can she do? She’s their perfect Palin pawn.
Palin, on the other hand, is already planning the takeover of Exxon in her little pea brain. It’s just a small thought bubble at the moment, but it will grow in proportion with her hubris just as it did with McCain. She starts out all palsy, smiley – then she squints under her pinched eyebrows, looks for the weakness, goes in for the snarky strike, and if that didn’t get ’em, uses a sturdy arm to toss ’em under the bus!
And they will both be looking over their shoulders… (when they aren’t spooning, thank you very much AKM).
Closet Mudpup Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 12:19 PM
clydedog
Southwest Gas has run their entire fleet of vehicles on compressed natural gas for almost thirty years now. Engines run cleaner and last longer than those burning gasoline or diesel, and the changeover is not at all high tech.
I share your reservations about the safety aspects of it for general use. The more pressurized NG tanks we put on the highway, the greater the probability that there will be accidents that involve ruptured tanks with ghastly consequences.
***********************************************************
Thanks, I know that stationary engines like generators run very well on natural gas. Some area with local natural gas but high electric rates use the gas for turbine generators and use the waste heat for heating and hot water. Could work for Alaska, the technology has been in use for quite a while.
Halcro has an interesting, informative piece on his sight…worth a read
I’d read during the campaign that the gas pipeline for the lower 48 was a red herring, anyway, because Palin had inked an export deal with Japan or elsewhere in Asia.
( http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1849383,00.html ):
”At no time did Palin or her government cite the desire to preserve Alaskan gas for the lower 48 states…According to Senator Ron Wyden, the Alaskan gas slated for Asia between 2009 and 2011 could meet the annual consumption of 1.4 million American families. The Oregon Democrat has accused Palin of a “major contradiction” between her support for gas exports and campaign emphasis on more drilling to slake US energy needs. “It’s pretty outrageous to scare Americans about energy shortages while she has been approving export of billions of cubic feet of natural gas that could be providing energy to homes in Alaska and the lower 48 states,” he said. ”
Here are a couple articles on this topic:
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSN0932191020080909
http://energy.ihs.com/News/natural-gas/2008/doe-alaska-lng-export-0611-08.htm
Speaking of Japan, I just read this on Newsminer: ”Japan’s Toshiba Corp., which is seeking to build a small, new-generation nuclear reactor in Alaska and would benefit from the administration’s proposed extension of laws reducing corporate liability for injuries or death caused by nuclear accidents.”
clydedog
Southwest Gas has run their entire fleet of vehicles on compressed natural gas for almost thirty years now. Engines run cleaner and last longer than those burning gasoline or diesel, and the changeover is not at all high tech.
I share your reservations about the safety aspects of it for general use. The more pressurized NG tanks we put on the highway, the greater the probability that there will be accidents that involve ruptured tanks with ghastly consequences. Also, while the exhaust from those vehicles contains none of the particulates of flammable liquid fuels, and far fewer harmful gases, they do produce water vapor and carbon dioxide – and both are acknowledged greenhouse gases.
Those Exxon execs have to be laughing their butts off and counting their coin-(Ka-ching, Ka-ching) when they realized Palin would be at the negotiations table.
I’m sure they broke out the cigars and said, “Time to buy a bigger ranch….We’ve struck gold, boys….we struck pure gold”.
I don’t think her winkin’ would pull much weight in their process. Did Palin think she could out-negotiate Exxon?
Paula Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 12:00 PM
“Looking ahead, after the two failed open seasons in 2010, the next move in the quest for a natural gas pipeline will land Alaska and the producers right back at square one where Frank Murkowski left us four years ago; negotiating a fiscal framework with those that will assume the risk of building the largest oil & gas project in the world.
And it will have only taken us four years to come full circle and make it right back to where we began.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Don’t forget the 500 million to TransCanada with no strings attached. You-know-who doesn’t like strings.
lol…sjk! 🙂
I thinkshe confused slut with glut!
“Looking ahead, after the two failed open seasons in 2010, the next move in the quest for a natural gas pipeline will land Alaska and the producers right back at square one where Frank Murkowski left us four years ago; negotiating a fiscal framework with those that will assume the risk of building the largest oil & gas project in the world.
And it will have only taken us four years to come full circle and make it right back to where we began.”
Gives a whole new meaning to ‘the silver ring thing,’ doesn’t it?
She is NOT running for Gov again. She is not worried about what Alaskans think about her or the pipeline deal.
She ONLY cares that she can spin this into something to run for President on. People don’t know the details about energy issues. They only know that gas for their cars costs a lot. And Palin promises more free gas!!! (just don’t tell them it’s not the kind of gas they can use in their cars!)
She also, too, can’t run because as soon as she “won” she would leave the state to run for President.
Anyone have the lnik to Ed sullivan Theater Earth Cam?
Palin always seems to be about three-five years behind reality and three-four bricks shy of a load on FACTS when she tries to speak… this governor will go far in the republican party…straight into oblivion…
Welcome back, Andrew. Hope you continue posting. I suspect the market is oversupplied, especially if the expansion of the tar sands projects stops. I don’t know who will want a $ 30-40 billion gassline then. Palin was celebrating Exxon’s entry into the process, but it’s more like the death nell for her reelection chances unless she does a Murkowski and tries to cut a back room tax deal with the producers for fiscal certainty. If she does that though, so much for her so called promises to fight big oil. So much for New Energy for Alaska.
“I sure worry about screwing up the Delware river and the drinking water of hundreds thousands of people”
__________
The two primary rivers which will be affected are the Susquehanna and Ohio.
__________________
1) I live right off the Susquehanna (Penns Creek flows there a few miles downstream). You can’t even eat the fish you catch here, already poluted. I think we’re wasting all this money on gas when we should be going solar/wind. That’s a lot of soalr panels and windmills…
2) “And for our nation’s security…” Palin says, wouldn’t a 2700 KM pipeline make an excellent target for someone who wanted to see something American go BOOM?
3) We’re going solar as soon as we get the money. Screw PP&L, Exxon, all of them.
Reuters announcing Exxon ordered to pay Alaska (miniscule sum but at least it’s something) for Exxon-Valdez spill. How will this impact SP’s relationship with Exxon? http://tinyurl.com/n4smne
The ONLY thing she knows about “energy” is that people like to hear about how Alaska under Palin will solve the nation’s energy crisis. Most people understand as little as she does, all they know is gas costs a lot. (gas from oil) I bet they all mix up gas from oil with natural gas.
The other ONLY thing she knows about energy is that some GOP operative told her that it was her hook to exploit. so she repeats hungry markets because it is all she knows.
Unless the media do their jobs and point out that natural gas is just not that much in demand, no one will know what a fraud she is.
@sauerkraut #42:
We don’t have a connection between fracking and earthquakes, it’s health risks and fracking, because the companies refuse to disclose what chemicals are used in the process, and it’s hard to track where the chemicals go–Colorado is looking hard at drift into water sources, both streams and aquifers.
Did Blitzer correct Palin or sight the sources that contradict her statements?
Why don’t these so-called journalists ever counter with real facts or ask them to back up their statements. She just lied last week on Hannity about the strings that are attached to stimulus money, and of course, HE wouldn’t correct her.
But, when did Blitzer crawl into bed with Palin?
Have you ever read, Trip Advisor? Some of the reviews and experiences are hilariously. Fun to read people with sense of humor although completely riled.
AKM has added an update with a link (at the bottom of AKM’s post) to Andrew Halcro weighing in on the Exxon deal.
“I sure worry about screwing up the Delware river and the drinking water of hundreds thousands of people”
__________
The two primary rivers which will be affected are the Susquehanna and Ohio.
Fracking… isn’t that what is causing earthquakes in odd areas of the southern part of the plains?
It’s rockin’ down here. And a lot of the infrastructure is in place to move and process the natural gas already. Hungry ?? Looks like our plate is full sarah.
http://www2.journalnow.com/content/2008/jul/29/natural-gas-discovery-making-many-millionaires-in-/
I’ll chime in—besides all the gas fields already mentioned, Texas has the Barnett Shale gas field. That’s the one that may be connected to earthquakes. In addition, producers have entered into leases ALL OVER North Texas, north of most of the Barnett Shale field.
There’s more action here now than there has been for 20-25 years.
Texas doesn’t want any Alaska gas!!!
Does anything think that actually facts and science will stop Palin from using phrases like “feeding hungry markets”,etc?
She is still using the “I’m just a hockey mom” line even though most “moms” are not Governors and haven’t signed a multi-million dollar book deal.
She will still use this as long as possible—until MItt takes her down in a debate.
It seems that the MSM that Palin bashes so much, only throws her softball questions and never counter her lies with facts, so they won’t confront her on this issue. I think they are all afraid of her. Odd.
Regarding Andrew Halcro’s article…….How do you think ole’ Tom Irwin feels today knowing Exxon will see his comments? Yup, Palin, Irwin and Rutherford went from hating Exxon to jumping into bed with them! Palin needs to go…..malfeasance and dereliction of duty. She is no Governor. She needs to start taking care of this state not trying to get ready for her run at the Presidency. What continues to go on is mind boggling. I sure hope the IRS and FBI are following all of this.
“In the interview Friday with Wolf Blitzer, Palin was asked why she disagreed with comments in a Wall Street Journal story that mentioned several economic challenges that may threaten a gas line to the Lower 48.
Here is a portion of the interview with Blitzer.
PALIN: Well, I think very shortsighted, whomever wrote that for the Wall Street Journal, assuming that market conditions are going to stay as they are today. Demand for natural gas is increasing. In fact, by probably 2030, we’ll see about a 40% increase in demand for natural gas.
Domestically, we have the supply. The resources are up there in Alaska, and it’s time that we build this infrastructure and flow that very valuable resource into hungry markets throughout the U.S.
This is going to be the largest energy project in the world by the private sector. It’s a great venue that we have, a vehicle called AGIA, the Alaska Gas Line Inducement Act, and believe me, Exxon, the largest company in the world, and TransCanada, the best pipeline-building company in the world, I’m sure they would not have aligned and committed to building this project had they not crunched the numbers and figured out that for their bottom line.
And for our nation’s security and for our environment, for our economy, this project is right.
It is time. Shortsighted to assume that there won’t be growing demand for energy sources. ”
So Sarah knows more than the experts?????
I just read Andrew Halcro’s column, and- if I read it right- Palin and Alaska have been outclassed, outmaneuvered, and snookered by Exxon. The company can sell their already developed but updated information on the project to TransCanada, who then bills Alaska; they sit in on open season and listen to the pricing framework; then they can walk away, unless they get a deal advantageous to the profitability of developing the fields and pipeline.
If I was Palin, I don’t think I’d be publicizing it too much; maybe banging my head on the desk would be more appropriate.
Popcorn, anyone?
Matt tried asking Scarah about this…….
OT:
Every time I hear her say “flow to hungry markets” I think she’s coming on to the lower 48. Sounds like an adult movie.
Is it just when she says it, or do the words themselves seem like an overture?
I read a story recently about fracking for natural gas in Texas and a possible connection with earthquakes. A quick search comes up with loads of links. Here’s one:
http://www.kwtx.com/home/headlines/47961351.html
Lilybart Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Two questions:
!) Isn’t it better to sell the gas to foreign markets? Pipeline to the shipping port instead?
2) Wasn’t T. Boone Pickens working on natural gas for Car fuel? He wanted to set up GAS stations (not gas from oil) to use natural gas in cars. That would be one way to use the gas we have.
No one seems to like LNG facilities.
I think you have to highly compress it for cars which is a technical and PR problem.
Besides PA and LA, there is a huge untapped gas basin in CO and into WY. There are only pilot programs so far, as it is shale, and we in the dry West have big water issues.
Joe BLow is right: fracking is a secretive, murky process. Companies say no one has proved it is harmful, so trust us–but there are increased numbers of cancer cases/serious health problems clustered around heavy drilling areas in Western Colorado.
I can’t see any “hungry markets” in the Lower 48 begging for this pipeline. Maybe Alaska would be better off building a line to a port, and ship it overseas to potential markets like China and India.
Lilybart “!) Isn’t it better to sell the gas to foreign markets? Pipeline to the shipping port instead?”
What we should do is use theirs and save ours.
AGIA is dead. And Sarah’s political life is dead.
Two questions:
!) Isn’t it better to sell the gas to foreign markets? Pipeline to the shipping port instead?
2) Wasn’t T. Boone Pickens working on natural gas for Car fuel? He wanted to set up GAS stations (not gas from oil) to use natural gas in cars. That would be one way to use the gas we have.
Kinda funny that Palin has too much gas!!
Paula ” I would never ever use natural gas in my home, not for the stove, heat, nothing. Scares me to death”
I am with you!!! The house we are in has natural gas for the water heater and stove. I am wanting to replace both and get the tank off the property.
I was renting a few years back when the owner put in a new gas stove. The moron was checking for gas leaks around the fitting with a lighter. I was way over the next block when I walked in the kitchen saw him hunched down with a flame.
Joe Blow you are absolutely right about the fracking. Although there is research going on here to find ways to save the water table.
Doing the drilling here in W PA is not moving very fast. One of the issues is finding the ACTUAL owners of the mineral rights. Example, my grandmother still received some oil profits until the 30s sometime. The old family farms have been sold but the mineral rights may not have been. Researching this is fun for someone who has to sit up in the government mushroom mines looking at old land deeds for months.
The other part of this project that never gets talked about is it has to go through Canada. It would go through two provinces and countless native lands and other jurisdictions. Northern pipeline projects within Canada have been stalled for 20 years because of land claims and other issues. Environmentalists will hate it, some will see it as competing in Alberta and the east coast, some hate Alberta (oil money), most don’t care. Canada has so much natural gas with no market they use it to extract oil from tar sands which uses almost twice the energy that it produces in oil.
Doesn’t seem anyone is impressed enough to buy stock in TransCanada.
http://quote.morningstar.com/Quote/Quote.aspx?Ticker=TRP
As a child I saw the end result of a brick house that blew to pieces from a gas leak/explosion. I would never ever use natural gas in my home, not for the stove, heat, nothing. Scares me to death. I know household use isn’t what they’re seeking as the main demand, but I think the stuff is scary as hell and don’t want to be anywhere near it. Nor live near a storage facility (or whatever you call them).
Candy Knight “They just discovered a HUGE field here in Louisiana.”
Totally true. SLB is on the North Slope. They would be THE contractor for Palin’s coo but they have announced no bidding is anywhere near reality.
http://www.rigzone.com/NEWS/article.asp?a_id=74253
In light of the news regarding an already surplus of natural gas, instead of giving favor to interests whose actions cause harm to the natural resources, why not concentrate on protecting and developing Alaska’s other natural resources, such as the Salmon industry? There would be good all the way around: needed income for the state, and even better, income and maintenance of self-worth for individuals rather than all the money going to corporations with “kickbacks” in the way of subsidies to state residents. Perhaps there are many elements that I am unaware of, but from what I do know, those ways seem logical to me.
Really, not hungry markets? Not even a wafter-thin mint? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlK62rjQWLk
Would this fit on a tweet? The Financial Post is just part of the media elite, and will be brought down when real Americans rise up, also.
ooops… actually
Acually rural Alaskans could really use the natural gas for all sorts of things and there are geographically close potential sites for extraction. I imagine that plentiful, inexpensive rural natural gas could also lead to test sites for renewable energy projects in rural Alaska., among other things. From what I understand, the risks for directional ocean drilling for gas are much much less than for oil. The problem is, there are a lot of great ideas being bandied about but all we hear about is the First Twit. There is SO MUCH more going on than what the twit even has on her radar (does she have radar, or just sticky fly tape?).
And there’s no telling how demand will fall once we start converting over to solar, wind geothermal etc.
Why burn natural gas when you can use an electric furnace, water heater, etc. powered by solar or wind?
2025 and there still may be no demand for that gas.
2012 and there will be no demand for that gasbag.
We are keeping a sharp eye on regs for Marcellus shale gas. The formation runs trhough penna to the NE into NY.
It’s not the horizontal drilling that’s a problem, although that’s what they like to talk about. It FRACKING.
yes that cool word from BSG which allowed them to swear on primetime tv is actually a technique which uses large amounts of water mixed with “proprietary” top-secret” supper-cool drilling fluids and injects it under very high pressures into the seams between the shale for “facture” them, which releases the gas.
So you hook up a hose to a stream, a well or a river and you suck up MILLIONS of gallons of water and you mix it with tons of undisclosed reactive organics and then force it into the water table under extremely high pressures.
next you have to pump out all the mix to get the gas to flow so you.. pump it out into “treatment ponds” or pump it into untold number of tanker trucks that haul it off “somewhere else”
The gas is good to have and is close to important markets and brings some income into blighted areas.
I sure worry about screwing up the Delware river and the drinking water of hundreds thousands of people
http://www.propublica.org/feature/officials-in-three-states-pin-water-woes-on-gas-drilling-426
The Hunger Market hook will be used continuously by “She Who Loves The Sound Of Her Own Voice”, until we are all ready to puke !!!
And yet, another trophy to Palin’s incompetence.
She’s opened the door for Exxon to rape Alaska again and for what? Gas that won’t be in demand until 2025. The pipeline won’t even pay for itself.
Any other governor would have denied Exxon the renewal of those leases in January and then said “Thank but no thanks” to Exxon’s involvement in anything Alaskan.
Instead of Exxon paying their $500 million settlement Alaska will be paying Exxon $250 million for the pipedream to nowhere.
WTF? You just can’t make this stuff up.
And yes, Sarah. You had better not plan on a 2010 re-election. Because you’re gonna lose.
I’m glad you pointed out that Enbridge is TransCanada’s rival. It’s worth pointing out that they may be getting courted for their pipeline-building expertise by the Denali group. This is the existing (I’m pretty sure it’s all in operation) pipeline they have. As you can see, some of it is already quite nicely positioned. http://library.enbridge.com/users/folder.asp?FolderID=1667
They just discovered a HUGE field here in Louisiana. It hasn’t been getting a lot of national media, but it’s there, and it’ll be a lot cheaper than anything being brought all the way from Alaska.
How long do they estimate this pipeline will take to be built? She keeps talking about 2030. By then, we’d better have cured our petroleum fix or the world is going to be in big trouble.
And how can she still brag about “taking on big oil” when she’s in bed with Exxon? The Palinator better watch out: the FBI just subpoenaed the records of our mayors lawn care service to see who’s been paying for it. They could have fun with the First Grifter.
By the time that gas line is finished no one will want what’s flowing from it:
Unconventional Natural Gas Reservoir In Pennsylvania Poised To Dramatically Increase US Production
ScienceDaily (Jan. 21, 2008) — Natural gas distributed throughout the Marcellus black shale in northern Appalachia could conservatively boost proven U.S. reserves by trillions of cubic feet if gas production companies employ horizontal drilling techniques, according to a Penn State and State University of New York, Fredonia, team.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080117094524.htm
Ellie May is going to have a hissy fit when she hears that this went public. And I’m so looking forward to her salad spinner on this one. =)
Pennsylvania has huge supplies of natural gas and is currently tapping them (cheaper than in Alaska, to be sure. And while they say there will be demand, it doesn’t look like that demand is going to be from Alaska, see article below (short and to the point):
As the price of natural gas falls off a cliff, it becomes a worthy competitor to coal as the primary source for electricity in the U.S.
http://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-natural-gas-could-kill-coal-2009-6
Someone should at least get to GINO and ask her to comment and make a statement as the Governor.
I can’t imagine how she will take all this News in and come up with something
‘ cognitive and intelligent ‘ as a response…But… the word salad alone will be funny.
Someone Twitter the Tweeterer… twit…. twit…
It may be just my imagination, but it seems to me that if Palin is for something, something either goes wrong with it (abstinence only or transparency in government) or the bottom falls out & whatever it is, is no longer needed, such as your gas line to take natural gas to the rest of us. Just a thought, you understand.
There may be a glut of natural gas, but that hasn’t stopped the gas merchants from keeping the prices artificially high. Nor will it stop Palin from pushing the pipeline concept because, well ya alls know, she’s the energy expert.
It will probably take about 25 years for it to be built. Just a guess…
Very interesting…..how will this all turn out?